Update to the Climate Change Plan - Key Sectors

Author: Kate Berry, Anna Brand, Greig Liddell, Alexa Morrison, Alan Rehfisch, Alasdair Reid

PDF Published: Tuesday 12 Jan 2021 (SB 21-02)

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Overview
Report

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Overview
Report
- Executive Summary
- Introduction
  - Emissions Statistics
- Draft CCPu Sectoral Detail
  - Deriving Sector Emissions Envelopes
  - Electricity
    
    Context
    
    2018 CCP - Electricity
    
    CCP Monitoring Report
    
    Recent Reports - Electricity
    
    Climate Change Committee Reports
    
    Advice on building a resilient recovery from the pandemic
    
    2020 Progress Report to the Scottish Parliament
    
    Advice on achieving 2030 interim target
    
    Parliamentary, and Other Scrutiny
    
    Climate Emergency Response Group
    
    Draft CCPu- Electricity
    
    Outcome One
    
    Outcome Two
    
    Outcome Three
  - Buildings
    
    Context
    
    2018 CCP - Buildings
    
    Buildings: policies and recent developments
    
    Buildings: 2020 Programme for Government
    
    Recent Reports: Buildings
    
    Draft CCPu - Buildings
    
    Policy Outcomes and Policies
    
    Asks of the UK Government
    
    Revised Monitoring Framework
  - Transport
    
    Context
    
    2018 CCP - Transport
    
    Recent Reports - Transport
    
    Parliamentary, and Other Scrutiny
    
    Draft CCPu - Transport
  - Industry
    
    Context
    
    Recent Reports - Industry
    
    Potential for Hydrogen and Carbon Capture
    
    Decarbonisation of Existing Industries
    
    Draft CCPu - Industry
    
    Monitoring Progress
  - Waste and the Circular Economy
    
    Context
    
    2018 CCP - Waste
    
    Recent Reports - Waste
    
    Draft CCPu - Waste
  - Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry
    
    Context
    
    2018 CCP - Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry
    
    Key Ambitions, Policies and Proposals
    
    Progress
    
    Recent Reports - Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry
    
    Climate Change Committee Reports
    
    The UK’s Sixth Carbon Budget
    
    Land Use: Policies for a Net-Zero UK
    
    Advice to the Scottish Government on Building a Resilient Recovery from Covid-19
    
    The CCC’s 2020 Progress Report to the Scottish Parliament
    
    Parliamentary Scrutiny
    
    Draft CCPu - Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry
    
    Updated Emissions Estimates for LULUCF
    
    Policies and Proposals
  - Agriculture
    
    Context
    
    2018 CCP - Agriculture
    
    Current progress
    
    Recent Reports - Agriculture
    
    Climate Change Committee Reports
    
    Land Use: Policies for a Net-Zero UK
    
    Advice on achieving the Scottish Government’s target of 75% reduction in emissions by 2030
    
    The CCC’s 2020 Progress Report to the Scottish Parliament
    
    Parliamentary, and Other Scrutiny
    
    Agriculture (Retained EU Law and Data) (Scotland) Act 2020
    
    The Scottish Parliament Environment, Climate Change and Land Reform Committee 's report on Green Recovery
    
    The Farming for 1.5 Inquiry report
    
    The Climate Emergency Response Group’s Interim Progress Report
    
    Suckler Beef Climate Group report
    
    Draft CCPu - Agriculture
  - Negative Emissions Technologies
    
    Outcomes
Sources

Emissions are expected to reduce by more than 50% over the next 11 years.

Image: Figure 1 - Anticipated Emissions Reductions 2020 - 2032

Emissions reductions are expected in all sectors, apart from LULUCF.

Image: Figure 2 - Anticipated Sectoral Change 2020 - 2032

Compared to the 2018 plan, the draft CCPu expects significantly greater emissions reductions to reach statutory targets, notably in the Electricity, Buildings, Industry and Agriculture Sectors.

Image: Figure 3 - Comparison of Changes to Ambition Between 2018 CCP and Draft CCPu in Anticipated Percentage Reduction in Emissions

A 376% reduction in emissions out to 2032 is expected (100% excluding NETs).

Image: Figure 4 - Anticipated Emissions Reductions Electricity 2020 - 2032

Chart showing expected annual buildings greenhouse gas emissions reductions between 2020 and 2032.

Image: Figure 5 - Anticipated Emissions Reductions Buildings 2020 - 2032

Chart showing annual reductions in industrial greenhouse gas emissions.

Image: Figure 7 - Industry GHG Emissions Since 1998 With Total Emissions

Changes in GHG emissions since 1990 by sub-sectors of industry.

Image: Figure 8 - Changes in GHG Emissions Between 1990 and 2018 by Sub-sectors of Industry

Emissions from the land use, land use change and forestry sector are negative overall, and the size of the carbon sink has increased between 1990 and 2018. Some activities in the sector emit greenhouse gases, such as development and agriculture-related land use, and some activities sequester greenhouse gases, such as forestry.

Image: Figure 14 - Emissions from Land use, Land Use Change and Forestry 1990-2018

The land use, land use change and forestry sector can be both a sink and a source of greenhouse gas emissions. It can also be a store, when it is neither emitting or sequestering carbon. Activities such as growing trees, or healthy peatlands sequester carbon, while removing trees or fires emit carbon from land. In 2018, the land use, land use change and forestry sector emitted 7.6 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent, but sequestered 13.1 million tonnes. To add to this, there are 6 to 10 million tonnes that are still to be accounted for, these are for emissions from degraded peatlands.

Image: Figure 15: Emissions from the Land Use, Land Use Change, and Forestry Sector

Chart showing annual transport greenhouse gas emissions targets between 2020 and 2032.

Image: Figure 6 - Anticipated Emissions Reductions Transport 2020 - 2032

Chart showing Industry GHG emission targets 2020 to 2032

Image: Figure 9 - Anticipated Emissions Reductions in Industry 2020 - 2032

Emissions from waste have reduced significantly since 1990, but have rebounded slightly in recent years.

Image: Figure 9 - Emissions from Waste in Scotland 1990 - 2018

The waste hierarchy puts prioritising waste prevention through efficient use and re-use at the top, followed by recycling and recovery of value, with landfill a last resort.

Image: Figure 10 - Waste Hierarchy

Scotland sent 3 million tonnes of waste to landfill in 2019, a reduction of 20% from 2018 and 57% from 2005.

Image: Figure 11 - Waste Landfilled in Scotland

The recycling rate for all waste in 2018 was 60.7%, an increase from 59.6% of waste recycled in 2017. In 2018 the household waste recycling rate was 44.7%, a decrease from the 45.5% rate achieved in 2017.

Image: Figure 12 - Recycling Rates in Scotland

Emissions in the Waste Sector are expected to reduce by 56% over the lifetime of the plan.

Image: Figure 13 - Anticipated Emissions Reductions Waste 2020 - 2032

The emissions from agriculture are anticipated to decline by 24.3% between 2020 and 2032, from 7 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent to 5.3 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent.

Image: Figure 16 - Anticipated Emissions Reductions Agriculture 2020 - 2032

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