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Published by The Scottish Parliamentary Corporate Body
The Scottish Government's Medium-Term Financial Strategy, May 2019
Author: Ross Burnside
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Published: Tuesday 11 Jun 2019 (SB 19-39)
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Overview
Report
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Overview
Report
Executive Summary
Context: the Medium Term Financial Strategy
Scotland's Economic and Fiscal Forecasts
Economic growth
Tax revenue forecasts
Income Tax reconciliations
Importance of the Block Grant Adjustment
Net potential impact of latest Revenue and BGA forecasts
Income tax forecast
Net tax position
Latest reconciliation forecasts
Why has the net income tax position deteriorated?
Devolved taxes
Land and Buildings Transaction tax
Landfill Tax
Non-Domestic Rates
Social security - a potential fiscal risk?
VAT
The budget outlook
Spending plans
Borrowing
The Scotland Reserve
Sources
Image: Figure 1: SFC Scottish GDP forecasts
Image: Figure 2: Average economic growth 2019-2023
Image: Figure 3: Scottish Fiscal Commission tax forecasts
Image: Figure 4: How is the Scottish Budget constructed?
Image: Figure 5: Income Tax 'net tax' position at successive fiscal events
Image: Figure 6: Latest forecast Income Tax reconciliations
Image: Figure 7: LBTT Revenues and BGA
Image: Figure 8: Landfill Tax revenues and BGA
Image: Figure 9: Outlook for the Scottish Budget, nominal terms
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Scottish Government. (2019, May 30). Scotland's Fiscal Outlook: The Scottish Government's Medium-Term Fiscal Outlook. Retrieved from
https://www.gov.scot/publications/scotlands-fiscal-outlook-scottish-governments-medium-term-financial-strategy-2019/
Budget Process Review Group. (2017). Final Report. Retrieved from
https://www.parliament.scot/S5_Finance/Reports/BPRG_-_Final_Report_30.06.17.pdf
Scottish Fiscal Commission. (2019). Scotland's Economic and Fiscal Forecasts May 2019. Retrieved from
http://www.fiscalcommission.scot/publications/scotlands-economic-and-fiscal-forecasts/scotlands-economic-and-fiscal-forecasts-may-2019/
David Eiser. (2019). Scottish Fiscal Commission tax and economy forecasts, May 2019. Retrieved from
https://www.parliament.scot/S5_Finance/Meeting%20Papers/AdviserPaper(1).pdf
Eiser, D. (2019). Scottish Fiscal Commission tax and economy forecasts, May 2019. Retrieved from
https://www.parliament.scot/S5_Finance/Meeting%20Papers/AdviserPaper(1).pdf
Finance and Constitution Committee. (2019). Report on Budget 2019-21. Retrieved from
https://www.parliament.scot/S5_Finance/Reports/Budget_Report_201920_-_FINAL.pdf
SFC and OBR Response to Finance and Constitution report on Budget 2019-20. (2019). https://www.parliament.scot/S5_Finance/General%20Documents/Dame_Susan_Rice_and_Robert_Chote_response_to_Budget_19-20.pdf.
HM Revenue and Customs. (2019). Scottish VAT Assignment. 2016 Provisional Estimate: Experimental Statistics, May 2019. Retrieved from
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/804682/Scottish_VAT_Assignment_Experimental_Statistics.pdf
Burnside, R. (n.d.) The Scottish Government's Five Year Financial Strategy. Retrieved from
https://digitalpublications.parliament.scot/ResearchBriefings/Report/2018/6/12/The-Scottish-Government-s-Five-Year-Financial-Strategy
Fraser of Allander Institute. (2019). Medium Term Financial Strategy: where’s the medium-term focus or strategy?. Retrieved from
https://fraserofallander.org/scottish-economy/fiscal-policy/medium-term-financial-strategy-wheres-the-medium-term-focus-or-strategy/
Last Updated: 27/7 1:46pm
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