Published by The Scottish Parliamentary Corporate Body
The Scottish Government's Medium-Term Financial Strategy, May 2019
Author: Ross Burnside
Published: Tuesday 11 Jun 2019 (SB 19-39)
Context: the Medium Term Financial Strategy
Scotland's Economic and Fiscal Forecasts
Tax revenue forecasts
Income Tax reconciliations
Importance of the Block Grant Adjustment
Net potential impact of latest Revenue and BGA forecasts
Income tax forecast
Net tax position
Latest reconciliation forecasts
Why has the net income tax position deteriorated?
Land and Buildings Transaction tax
Social security - a potential fiscal risk?
The budget outlook
The Scotland Reserve
Image: Figure 1: SFC Scottish GDP forecasts
Image: Figure 2: Average economic growth 2019-2023
Image: Figure 3: Scottish Fiscal Commission tax forecasts
Image: Figure 4: How is the Scottish Budget constructed?
Image: Figure 5: Income Tax 'net tax' position at successive fiscal events
Image: Figure 6: Latest forecast Income Tax reconciliations
Image: Figure 7: LBTT Revenues and BGA
Image: Figure 8: Landfill Tax revenues and BGA
Image: Figure 9: Outlook for the Scottish Budget, nominal terms
Scottish Government. (2019, May 30). Scotland's Fiscal Outlook: The Scottish Government's Medium-Term Fiscal Outlook. Retrieved from
Budget Process Review Group. (2017). Final Report. Retrieved from
Scottish Fiscal Commission. (2019). Scotland's Economic and Fiscal Forecasts May 2019. Retrieved from
David Eiser. (2019). Scottish Fiscal Commission tax and economy forecasts, May 2019. Retrieved from
Eiser, D. (2019). Scottish Fiscal Commission tax and economy forecasts, May 2019. Retrieved from
Finance and Constitution Committee. (2019). Report on Budget 2019-21. Retrieved from
SFC and OBR Response to Finance and Constitution report on Budget 2019-20. (2019). https://www.parliament.scot/S5_Finance/General%20Documents/Dame_Susan_Rice_and_Robert_Chote_response_to_Budget_19-20.pdf.
HM Revenue and Customs. (2019). Scottish VAT Assignment. 2016 Provisional Estimate: Experimental Statistics, May 2019. Retrieved from
Burnside, R. (n.d.) The Scottish Government's Five Year Financial Strategy. Retrieved from
Fraser of Allander Institute. (2019). Medium Term Financial Strategy: where’s the medium-term focus or strategy?. Retrieved from
Last Updated: 28/9 8:19am
An error occured while loading, please try again in a few minutes.
BACK TO TOP