The Scottish Government's Medium-Term Financial Strategy, May 2019

Author: Ross Burnside

PDF Published: Tuesday 11 Jun 2019 (SB 19-39)

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Overview
Report

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Overview
Report
- Executive Summary
- Context: the Medium Term Financial Strategy
- Scotland's Economic and Fiscal Forecasts
  - Economic growth
  - Tax revenue forecasts
- Income Tax reconciliations
  - Importance of the Block Grant Adjustment
  - Net potential impact of latest Revenue and BGA forecasts
    
    Income tax forecast
    
    Net tax position
    
    Latest reconciliation forecasts
    
    Why has the net income tax position deteriorated?
- Devolved taxes
  - Land and Buildings Transaction tax
  - Landfill Tax
  - Non-Domestic Rates
- Social security - a potential fiscal risk?
- VAT
- The budget outlook
- Spending plans
- Borrowing
- The Scotland Reserve
- Executive Summary
- Context: the Medium Term Financial Strategy
- Scotland's Economic and Fiscal Forecasts
- Income Tax reconciliations
- Devolved taxes
- Social security - a potential fiscal risk?
- VAT
- The budget outlook
- Spending plans
- Borrowing
- The Scotland Reserve
Sources

Image: Figure 1: SFC Scottish GDP forecasts …

Image: Figure 2: Average economic growth 2019-2023 …

Image: Figure 3: Scottish Fiscal Commission tax forecasts …

Image: Figure 4: How is the Scottish Budget constructed? …

Image: Figure 5: Income Tax 'net tax' position at successive fiscal events …

Image: Figure 6: Latest forecast Income Tax reconciliations …

Image: Figure 7: LBTT Revenues and BGA …

Image: Figure 8: Landfill Tax revenues and BGA …

Image: Figure 9: Outlook for the Scottish Budget, nominal terms …

Scottish Government. (2019, May 30). Scotland's Fiscal Outlook: The Scottish Government's Medium-Term Fiscal Outlook. Retrieved from https://www.gov.scot/publications/scotlands-fiscal-outlook-scottish-governments-medium-term-financial-strategy-2019/

Budget Process Review Group. (2017). Final Report. Retrieved from https://www.parliament.scot/S5_Finance/Reports/BPRG_-_Final_Report_30.06.17.pdf

Scottish Fiscal Commission. (2019). Scotland's Economic and Fiscal Forecasts May 2019. Retrieved from http://www.fiscalcommission.scot/publications/scotlands-economic-and-fiscal-forecasts/scotlands-economic-and-fiscal-forecasts-may-2019/

David Eiser. (2019). Scottish Fiscal Commission tax and economy forecasts, May 2019. Retrieved from https://www.parliament.scot/S5_Finance/Meeting%20Papers/AdviserPaper(1).pdf

Eiser, D. (2019). Scottish Fiscal Commission tax and economy forecasts, May 2019. Retrieved from https://www.parliament.scot/S5_Finance/Meeting%20Papers/AdviserPaper(1).pdf

Finance and Constitution Committee. (2019). Report on Budget 2019-21. Retrieved from https://www.parliament.scot/S5_Finance/Reports/Budget_Report_201920_-_FINAL.pdf

SFC and OBR Response to Finance and Constitution report on Budget 2019-20. (2019). https://www.parliament.scot/S5_Finance/General%20Documents/Dame_Susan_Rice_and_Robert_Chote_response_to_Budget_19-20.pdf.

HM Revenue and Customs. (2019). Scottish VAT Assignment. 2016 Provisional Estimate: Experimental Statistics, May 2019. Retrieved from https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/804682/Scottish_VAT_Assignment_Experimental_Statistics.pdf

Burnside, R. (n.d.) The Scottish Government's Five Year Financial Strategy. Retrieved from https://digitalpublications.parliament.scot/ResearchBriefings/Report/2018/6/12/The-Scottish-Government-s-Five-Year-Financial-Strategy

Fraser of Allander Institute. (2019). Medium Term Financial Strategy: where’s the medium-term focus or strategy?. Retrieved from https://fraserofallander.org/scottish-economy/fiscal-policy/medium-term-financial-strategy-wheres-the-medium-term-focus-or-strategy/

Last Updated: 5/6 4:10pm