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Published by The Scottish Parliamentary Corporate Body
The Scottish Government's Five Year Financial Strategy
Author: Ross Burnside
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Published: Tuesday 12 Jun 2018 (SB 18-39)
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Overview
Report
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Overview
Report
Executive Summary
Context: The Medium Term Financial Strategy
The Scottish Economic and Fiscal Forecast
Economic growth
Tax revenue forecasts
Implications of changes to tax forecasts for the short term
The importance of the Block Grant Adjustment
Net potential impact of SFC and OBR forecasts
Implications of forecasts for the medium term
Budgetary commitments
Outlook for non-protected parts of the Budget
Budget Challenges
Subject Committee pre-Budget reports
Has the Financial Strategy delivered BPRG recommendations?
Sources
Image: Figure 1: Scottish Fiscal Commission Tax forecasts
Image: Figure 2: Percentage revisions to SFC tax forecasts
Image: The importance of the Block Grant Adjustment
Image: Figure 3: Latest forecasts compared with forecasts used for 2018-19 Budget
Image: Figure 4: Latest forecasts compared with forecasts used for 2017-18 Budget
Image: Figure 5: Real terms change in "other expenditure", under different scenarios
Image: Figure 6: Other expenditure as a percentage of Budget, under different scenarios
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Scottish Government. (2018, May 31). Scotland's Fiscal Outlook. The Scottish Government's Five Year Financial Strategy. Retrieved from
http://www.gov.scot/Resource/0053/00535972.pdf
Budget Process Review Group. (2017). Final Report. Retrieved from
http://www.parliament.scot/S5_Finance/Reports/BPRG_-_Final_Report_30.06.17.pdf
Scottish Fiscal Commission. (2018). Scotland's Economic and Fiscal Forecasts. May 2018. Retrieved from
http://www.fiscalcommission.scot/publications/scotlands-economic-and-fiscal-forecasts/scotlands-economic-and-fiscal-forecasts-may-2018/
Scottish Parliament Finance and Constitution Committee. (2018). Report on Draft Budget 2018-19. Retrieved from
http://www.scottish.parliament.uk/S5_Finance/Reports/Report_on_Draft_Budget_2018-19.pdf
Eiser, D. (2018, June 07). Revisions to the Scottish income tax forecasts: what has driven them, and do they matter?. Retrieved from
https://fraserofallander.org/scottish-economy/tax/revisions-to-the-scottish-income-tax-forecasts-what-has-driven-them-and-do-they-matter/
Scottish Parliament. (2018, May 31). Chamber Official Report. Retrieved from
http://www.parliament.scot/parliamentarybusiness/report.aspx?r=11571&i=104931
Finance and Constitution Committee. (2018, June 06). Official Report. Retrieved from
http://www.parliament.scot/parliamentarybusiness/report.aspx?r=11589
Office for National Statistics. (2018, May 23). Inflation and price indices. Retrieved from
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices
Fraser of Allander Institute. (2017). Scotland's Budget 2017. Retrieved from
https://www.sbs.strath.ac.uk/economics/fraser/20170926/Scotlands-Budget-2017.pdf
The Budget process session 5 agreement between the Scottish Government and the Finance and Constitution Committee. (2018). Retrieved from
http://www.scottish.parliament.uk/S5_Finance/General%20Documents/20180517WA_with_SG.pdf
Last Updated: 3/1 5:04am
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