The Scottish Government's Five Year Financial Strategy

Author: Ross Burnside

PDF Published: Tuesday 12 Jun 2018 (SB 18-39)

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Overview
Report

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Overview
Report
- Executive Summary
- Context: The Medium Term Financial Strategy
- The Scottish Economic and Fiscal Forecast
  - Economic growth
  - Tax revenue forecasts
- Implications of changes to tax forecasts for the short term
  - The importance of the Block Grant Adjustment
  - Net potential impact of SFC and OBR forecasts
- Implications of forecasts for the medium term
  - Budgetary commitments
  - Outlook for non-protected parts of the Budget
    
    Budget Challenges
    
    Subject Committee pre-Budget reports
- Has the Financial Strategy delivered BPRG recommendations?
- Executive Summary
- Context: The Medium Term Financial Strategy
- The Scottish Economic and Fiscal Forecast
- Implications of changes to tax forecasts for the short term
- Implications of forecasts for the medium term
- Has the Financial Strategy delivered BPRG recommendations?
Sources

Image: Figure 1: Scottish Fiscal Commission Tax forecasts …

Image: Figure 2: Percentage revisions to SFC tax forecasts …

Image: The importance of the Block Grant Adjustment …

Image: Figure 3: Latest forecasts compared with forecasts used for 2018-19 Budget …

Image: Figure 4: Latest forecasts compared with forecasts used for 2017-18 Budget …

Image: Figure 5: Real terms change in "other expenditure", under different scenarios …

Image: Figure 6: Other expenditure as a percentage of Budget, under different scenarios …

Scottish Government. (2018, May 31). Scotland's Fiscal Outlook. The Scottish Government's Five Year Financial Strategy. Retrieved from http://www.gov.scot/Resource/0053/00535972.pdf

Budget Process Review Group. (2017). Final Report. Retrieved from http://www.parliament.scot/S5_Finance/Reports/BPRG_-_Final_Report_30.06.17.pdf

Scottish Fiscal Commission. (2018). Scotland's Economic and Fiscal Forecasts. May 2018. Retrieved from http://www.fiscalcommission.scot/publications/scotlands-economic-and-fiscal-forecasts/scotlands-economic-and-fiscal-forecasts-may-2018/

Scottish Parliament Finance and Constitution Committee. (2018). Report on Draft Budget 2018-19. Retrieved from http://www.scottish.parliament.uk/S5_Finance/Reports/Report_on_Draft_Budget_2018-19.pdf

Eiser, D. (2018, June 07). Revisions to the Scottish income tax forecasts: what has driven them, and do they matter?. Retrieved from https://fraserofallander.org/scottish-economy/tax/revisions-to-the-scottish-income-tax-forecasts-what-has-driven-them-and-do-they-matter/

Scottish Parliament. (2018, May 31). Chamber Official Report. Retrieved from http://www.parliament.scot/parliamentarybusiness/report.aspx?r=11571&i=104931

Finance and Constitution Committee. (2018, June 06). Official Report. Retrieved from http://www.parliament.scot/parliamentarybusiness/report.aspx?r=11589

Office for National Statistics. (2018, May 23). Inflation and price indices. Retrieved from https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices

Fraser of Allander Institute. (2017). Scotland's Budget 2017. Retrieved from https://www.sbs.strath.ac.uk/economics/fraser/20170926/Scotlands-Budget-2017.pdf

The Budget process session 5 agreement between the Scottish Government and the Finance and Constitution Committee. (2018). Retrieved from http://www.scottish.parliament.uk/S5_Finance/General%20Documents/20180517WA_with_SG.pdf

Last Updated: 8/3 8:40pm