Key Issues for Session 7 | Scottish Parliament

Key Issues for Session 7

Author: SPICe Research and SPICe Data Visualisation Team

PDF Published: Tuesday 12 May 2026 (SB 26-25)

Bar graph showing that consultant led outpatient attendances, inpatient and day cases, and emergency admissions have decreased by 5.3%, 6.6% and 9.3% respectively between 2019-20 and 2024-25, while the number of whole time equivalent medical and dental staff, nursing and midwifery staff, and allied health professionals have increased by 21.1%, 13.4% and 18.5% respectively between December 2019 and December 2025.

Image: Figure 12: Percentage change in key treatment volumes and NHS employed staff numbers (whole time equivalent) between 2019 and 2025

Throughout Session 6 of the Scottish Parliament, there have been a number of external shocks which have impacted the Scottish economy and politics. From 31 December 2020 when the transition period ended and the UK left the EU, through several lockdowns in response to the Covid-19 pandemic starting March 2020, the increase in trade barriers due to the use of tariffs by the USA, to conflicts in Ukraine, Gaza and Iran.

Image: Figure 23: Timeline of external shocks

Health spending is the biggest part of public spending in Scotland, and has remained relatively stable in the recent years. General public services is the next largest, and has been trending down as a proportion of spending. Social protection is the main area of growth, and is now the third largest area of spend.

Image: Figure 1: Trends in resource and capital spending against COFOG classifications between 2021-22 and 2026-27

Figure showing the breakdown of the 551,000 devolved public sector workforce broken down by broad sector. Local government is the largest, with 261,000 workers and the NHS is the second largest, with 190,000 workers.

Image: Figure 2: Devolved public sector workforce by sector (headcount), quarter 4 2025

Chart showing the increase in the devolved public sector workforce (headcount) and how it has grown by 50,000 since 2019.

Image: Figure 3: Increase in devolved public sector headcount since 2015

Sector breakdown of the change in employment by sector since 2015. The largest numerical increase has been in the NHS and local government. The largest percentage increase has been seen in the devolved civil service.

Image: Figure 4: Change in headcount since 2015 for main sectors of the devolved public sector

Bar chart showing the expected savings by £ millions for each directorate over the next three years. This was published by the previous Scottish Government. The largest savings are expected to be made in the area of health and social care.

Image: Figure 5: Planned efficiencies and savings by portfolio area 2026-27 to 2028-29

Chart showing the breakdown of infrastructure investments by portfolio, showing the greatest share as being for transport at over £7.5 billion, followed by, in order, Health and Sport and Education, both below £4 billion.

Image: Figure 6: Value of Scottish Government-led projects since 2007 as at August 2025, by sector

Chart showing the proportionate geographic spread of infrastructure investment, illustrating the concentration of investment in cities and suburban areas rather than in rural and island council areas

Image: Figure 7: Value of Scottish Government-led projects since 2007 as at August 2025 by local authority area

The chart shows that the Scottish Government's total capital budget for 2026-27 is £7,568 million, the vast majority of which (£6,712 million) comes from the Core Barnett Settlement. The remainder is made up of smaller funding sources, including £491 million of borrowing, £245 million from financial transactions, and £120 million for City Deals.

Image: Figure 8: Total capital budget, 2026-27

Chart showing capital funding trends from 2025-26 to 2030-31 in nominal and real terms, indexed so that 2025-26 levels are equal to 100. Capital funding grows in 2026-27 by 5% and then remains flat over the forecast period. Adjusting for inflation sees a fall in capital funding over the forecast period.

Image: Figure 9: Capital funding outlook

This figure presents an imaginary “House of a healthy, resilient life” built out of the building blocks of health. These include employment, living conditions, housing, healthcare services, agriculture and food production, the work environment, social and community factors, water and sanitation, education, age, sex, cultural factors, behaviour, and socio-economic and environmental conditions. People without access to high-quality building blocks of health are at more risk of building a life which requires reactive services.

Image: Figure 10: Building Blocks of Health and wellbeing

A diagram showing how the PHF drivers of health and wellbeing interact. Category 1: Social and economic factors. These improve the social and economic factors that support better health and reduce inequalities. Category 2: Places and communities. These create healthy and sustainable places by working in and with communities. Category 3: Equitable health and care. This fosters a health and social care system that delivers equity, prevention and early intervention. Category 4: Enable healthy living. This aims to develop supportive environments that promote health and wellbeing and reduce health harming activities. At the centre of it all is a prevention-focused system which aims to strengthen collective accountability for population health outcomes and inequalities.

Image: Figure 11: Population Health Framework includes prevention at the core of its structure

Across Scotland as a whole, IJBs receive 67% of their funding from the NHS, 29% from local authorities and 4% from service charges.

Image: Figure 13: Breakdown of funding for Integration Joint Boards (2024-25)

Line graph showing that the amount local government spends on social care has increased by 18% in real terms since 2010.

Image: Figure 14: Local government spend on social work (2025-26 prices)

Between 2024 and 2049 it is projected that the number of people living in Scotland aged 75 and over will increase by 301,000 and those aged under 30 will decrease by 324,000.

Image: Figure 15: Projected population change by age group, mid-2024 to mid-2049 (thousands)

Graph showing college capital and resource budgets between 2021-22 and 2026-27

Image: Figure 16: College budgets 2021-22 to 2026-27

Graph showing university capital and resource budgets between 2021-22 and 2026-27

Image: Figure 17: University budgets 2021-22 to 2026-27

Graph showing the increase in rail, bus, and motoring costs compared to the Retail Prices Index measure of inflation between 2004 and 2025

Image: Figure 18: Percentage increase in transport costs by mode between 2004 and 2025

Chart showing the rate of growth in GDP per capita in Scotland since 1998. Growth in GDP per capita has slowed since around 2008.

Image: Figure 19: Onshore GDP per capita, chained volume measure (2022=100), Scotland

Chart showing median gross weekly earnings for employees in Scotland expressed in 2025 prices (so real terms) since 1998. Earnings stagated in 2008, fell from 2010 to 2013, then started growing again from 2014 but at a slower average annual rate

Image: Figure 20: Median gross weekly earnings for employees (£, 2025 prices), Scotland

Chart showing the average annual rate of growth in real disposable income per person in Scotland from 1999-00. Disposable income per person grew at around 2.9% per year between 1999-00 and 2007-08. Growth then slowed to an average of 0.8% per year until 2024-25. Forecasts suggest growth in real disposable income per person is likely to average around 0.4% per year until 2030-31.

Image: Figure 21: Average annual growth rate in real disposable income per person, Scotland

Chart showing the average rate of CPI inflation in the UK since 1998. Inflation trended close to the Bank of England's 2% target until 2022, when it peaked at 11.1%, before falling back down again.

Image: Figure 22: Annual rate of Consumer Price Index inflation, UK

The UK's exit from the EU, the Covid-19 pandemic and challenging trading conditions have contributed to a difficult environment for exporters. Between 2019 and 2023 Scotland's international exports as a % of GDP reduced from 20.5% to 19.7%. The lockdown in response to the Covid-19 pandemic caused the Scottish economy to contract by nearly 25% in Q1 and Q2 of 2020. The economy didn't recover to its pre-pandemic level until November 2021. The Russian invasion of Ukraine caused significant disruption to international energy markets, which increased costs for consumers and businesses. CPI inflation in the UK peaked at 11.1% in October 2022, over five times the 2% target.

Image: Figure 24: These external shocks have had a significant impact on Scotland's economy and politics

The Strait of Hormuz is an important trade corrider for a number of industrial goods; 33% of global helium flows through the Strait, 20% of fertiliser, 20% of liquified natural gas, and 9% of aluminium.

Image: Figure 25: The Strait of Hormuz is an important trade route for several industrial goods

The chart shows that child poverty fell from 30% in the mid 1990s to 19% in 2011-12. Since then it has fluctuated around 20% to 26%. Recent methodological changes have increased the size of these fluctuations, with child poverty of 27% in 22-23, 16% in 23-24 and 21% in 24-25. Scottish Government projections are that child poverty will be 18% in 2030-31 against a 10% target.

Image: Figure 26: Children in relative poverty after housing costs: Official statistics, projections and statutory targets.

In contrast to the period up until 2020-21, the overall trend since the pandemic has been increasing expenditure on legal aid. Criminal legal assistance shows the biggest increase, whereas the small amount of expenditure allocated to grant funding has seen decreases in the past two years.

Image: Figure 27: net legal aid expenditure 2014-15 to 2024-25

Chart showing disability prevalence amongst adults aged 16-64 in Scotland and the UK from 2014. This is measured by the percentage of adults aged 16-64 reporting a long-standing physical or mental health condition (lasting or expected to last 12 months or more) that limits day-to-day activities either “a lot” or “a little”. The chart shows that disability prevalence has risen in Scotland from just under 20% in 2014 to 28% in 2025. Disability prevalence has also risen in the UK but not as fast.

Image: Figure 28: Disability prevalence age 16-64, Scotland and UK

Chart showing the percentage of the population receiving disability payments in Scotland and England and Wales, by year of age in 2020 and 2025. It shows that a greater share of the population claim disability payments in Scotland than in England and Wales. Between 2020 and 2025, there has been an increase in claims amongst all age groups, with the increase proportionately higher in Scotland than in England and Wales.

Image: Figure 29: Percentage of population receiving disability payments in Scotland and England and Wales, by year of age in 2020 and 2025

This graph shows a bell curve with a neurotypical range of traits in the centre and neurodivergent either side.

Image: Figure 30: Neurodiversity: what is it?

Chart showing the number of children on neurodevelopmental assessment waiting lists, at March 2025, by health board and as share of population. Shows Greater Glasgow and Clyde has the highest number of children waiting followed by Lanarkshire.

Image: Figure 31: Number of children waiting for a neurodevelopmental assessment in each health board (March 2025)

Chart showing the number of adults on neurodevelopmental waiting lists, at March 2025, by health board and as share of population. Shows Lothian Greater Glasgow and Clyde had the highest number of adults waiting.

Image: Figure 32: Number of adults waiting for a neurodevelopment assessment in each health board (March 2025)

Bar chart showing projected numbers of people in Scotland who will die with palliative care needs up to 2040, broken down by age group. The chart shows modest increases in younger age groups and a pronounced increase among those aged 85–100, indicating that most future growth in need will come from the oldest population.

Image: Figure 33: Projected number of people dying with palliative care needs in Scotland by 2040, by age group

Chart showing where asylum seekers are living in Scotland, by the type of accommodation, in each local authority, as at December 2025

Image: Figure 34: Where asylum seekers live in Scotland, by accommodation type, as at December 2025

Chart showing the number of homeless applications in each Scottish local authority, and the proportion of applicants who have refugee status

Image: Figure 35: Homeless applications by local authority in 2024-25 and the proportion of applicants with refugee status

The Session 6 Scottish Government's commitment was to deliver 110,000 affordable homes by 2032. By the end of December 2025, 30% of the target, 32,479 homes had been completed

Image: Figure 36: The Session 6 Scottish Government's affordable housing supply target - progress to 31 December 2025

Bar chart showing the number of affordable housing completions by type, social rent, affordable home ownership and affordable rent from 2016 to 2025. Completions peaked in 2022, but have fallen since then to 2025 with the lowest number of completions in the time series.

Image: Figure 37: Affordable Housing Supply Completions by type - 2016 to 2025

Graph showing, first the emissions in different sectors of the Scottish economy in 2023 multiplied by 5 to make them equivalent to a carbon budget period. Alongside this is the emission reductions in 2026-30 planned to come from Scottish Government policy

Image: Figure 38: Current emissions (as a 5-year carbon budget) and reduction in emissions planned over 2026-30 (first carbon budget)

The image shows an infographic of key figures on nature crisis in Scotland and globally. It shows that according to the UN global assessment, at a global level 25% of assessed species are threatened with extinction, natural ecosystems have declined 47% on average by extent and condition, and 1 million species are estimated to be threatened with extinction. In Scotland, the State of Nature 2023 report suggested that 11% of species are threatened with extinction and there has been a 15% drop in species abundance since 1994. The image also shows that Scotland missed 11 out of its 20 previous biodiversity targets for 2020.

Image: Figure 40: The nature crisis in Scotland and globally - some key figures

The image shows an infographic of the key pressures on nature in Scotland - showed as being agricultural management, climate change, overgrazing, forestry and woodland management, pollution, invasive non-native species and disease, inappropriate development, upland management, habitat fragmentation and fisheries.

Image: Figure 41: Drivers of biodiversity loss in Scotland Source

Timeline showing events contributing to agricultural policy reform between 2016 and 2026, including stakeholder groups formed, consultations launched, new or adapted support schemes, and reports published.

Image: Figure 43: Ten years of agricultural policy reform

Image illustrating the Scottish Government's new four-tiered framework for agricultural policy. Tier 1 is comprised of basic support, tier 2 is enhanced support, tier 3 is elective support for protecing species and habitats and enhancing business sustainability, and tier 4 is complementary support, such as advice.

Image: Figure 44: The new four-tier policy framework

Image showing emerging themes from a recent consultation, including connection to place, lack of transparency and concern about concentration of power, as well as measures that may tackle these.

Image: Figure 45: Key themes and issues for session 7

The image shows the waste hierarchy represented by an upside-down pyramid, where at the top of the pyramid, waste prevention is prioritised, followed by 'prepare for reuse', 'recycle', 'recover other value' and finally dispose when there is no other option.

Image: Figure 46: The waste hierarchy

Map showing the current Scottish MPA Network.

Image: Figure 47: Scotland’s Marine Protected Area Network

Regional Marine Planning process

Image: Figure 48: What is Regional Marine Planning?

Map illustrating the boundaries of Scotland's 11 Marine Regions

Image: Figure 49: Scottish Marine Regions

The infographic shows a three-tiered system of intergovernmental relations. At the top is the Council, in the middle are interministerial committees, and at the bottom are interministerial groups.

Image: Figure 50: The intergovernmental relations structure in the UK

Infographic summarising five key components of Scotland’s transparency and accountability framework, including the Freedom of Information (Scotland) Act 2002, the Interests of Members of the Scottish Parliament Act 2006 and the Register of Interests, the Lobbying (Scotland) Act 2016 and the Lobbying Register, the Scottish Ministerial Code, and the Code of Conduct for Members of the Scottish Parliament, each represented with a purple icon.

Image: Figure 51: Scotland's Transparency Framework

Chart showing, first current house at risk of flooding (284,000) and a projected houses at risk in 2080 (400,000). Second chart shows the rise in the cost of flood defense schemes between 2015 and 2025, rising from £350 million to £1 billion. Third chart shows likeliehood of heavy rainfall rising from 1 in 50 years to 1 in 5 years. Finally, a chart shows the recommendation for governments to propare for 2 degrees of climate change and assess impacts of 4 degrees increase.

Image: Figure 39: Flooding issues for Session 7

Last Updated: 14/6 10:28am

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