Scotland's exports - policy and statistics

Author: Andrew Aiton, Andrew Feeney-Seale and Iain McIver

PDF Published: Tuesday 10 Sep 2024 (SB 24-44)

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Overview
Report

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Overview
Report
- Key points
- How this briefing is structured
- Why are we interested in exports?
- Scotland's export performance - main data sources
  - Exports Statistics Scotland
  - Regional Trade Statistics
  - Other data sources
  - Comparability of data sources
- Scotland's international exports - the policy approach
  - Policy before Brexit
    
    Trading Nation Progress Review 2022
  - Since Brexit
  - The UK context
- Scotland's international exports - impact of geopolitical events and COVID 19
  - The UK's departure from the EU
    
    The trade impact of leaving the EU
    
    New bilateral trade agreements
  - The COVID 19 pandemic
  - Russia's illegal invasion of Ukraine
  - Other global supply chain disruption
- Case studies
  - Service exports
    
    Financial services
    
    Wholesale and retail trade
  - Food and drink
    
    Seafood
    
    Non-EU international exports
    
    Beverages
  - Mineral fuels, lubricants & related materials
    
    Petroleum, petroleum products & related materials
    
    Gas, natural & manufactured
- Key points
- How this briefing is structured
- Why are we interested in exports?
- Scotland's export performance - main data sources
- Scotland's international exports - the policy approach
- Scotland's international exports - impact of geopolitical events and COVID 19
- Case studies
Sources

The value of Scottish international exports as a percentage of GDP is below the target of 25%, currently sitting at 19%.

Image: Figure 1: Value of Scottish international exports as a percentage of Scottish on-shore GDP …

In 2021 Scotland exported £80 billion. The rest of the UK accounted for £49 billion of Scottish exports, with £16 billion going to non-EU destinations and £15 billion going to the EU. Services accounted for £39 billion, manufacturing £28 billion and £13 billion in other exports.

Image: Figure 2: Exports from Scotland by sector and destination, 2021 …

The mass of Sottish exports has fallen between 2016/17 and 2023/24, mainly drive by a significant fall in exports to non-EU destinations. Overall, the value of goods exports has increase by in real terms, with export to the EU increasing and exports to non-EU destinations falling.

Image: Figure 3: Indexed total mass and value of Scotland's international goods exports, 2016/17 to 2023/24 …

Scotland's top export good are “Mineral fuel, lubricants and related materials, worth £9.1 billion in 2023.24. “Machinery and transport equipment” at the second most valuable at £8.3 billion, with “beverages and tobacco” worth £5.2 billion.

Image: Figure 4: Sectoral breakdown of Scotland's international goods exports, by destination …

In terms of mass the rest of the UK has seen a larger fall than Scotland. But Scotland has seen a larger fall to non-EU destinations. In terms of real terms value Scotland has seen an increase overall. This is looked at further in the text.

Image: Figure 5: Scotland and rUK exports; change in value and mass between 2016/17 and 2023/24 …

As explored in the text, Scotland and London are the only regions to not have “machinery and transport equipment” as their top export commodities.

Image: Figure 6: Devolved nations and English regions exports, 2023/24 …

Priority 1 markets make up 67% of Scottish exports and 69% of the export value gap.

Image: Figure 7: Priority 1 markets identified in the Scottish Government's export strategy …

Priority 2 markets make up 14% of Scottish exports and 11% of the export value gap.

Image: Figure 8: Priority 2 markets identified in the Scottish Government's export strategy …

As discussed in the text, financial services is the most valuable services export at £11 billion.

Image: Figure 12: Value of individual service sectors exports in 2021 …

As discussed in the text, Professional, scientific and technical activities and education are the only sectors where more is exported to international destinations than to the rest of the UK.

Image: Figure 13: Service exports by destination …

The majority of food and drink exports go to non-EU destinations in terms of both value and mass. However, for mass this has only been the case since 2020/21.

Image: Figure 16: Food and drink exports by destination, mass and value …

The majority of mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials export go to the EU. This has become more pronounced since 2020/21 since the large fallen in exports to non-EU destinations.

Image: Figure 19: exports of mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials, mass and value …

Image: Figure 10: Changes in the mass and value of Scotland's goods exports, 2016/17 to 2023/24 …

If we exclude exports of oil and gas, we can see that export to the EU have remained stable in real terms and fallen slightly in terms of mass.

Image: Figure 11: Scotland's exports to the EU, including and excluding oil and gas …

The majority of financial services exports go to the rest of the UK.

Image: Figure 14: Financial services exports by destination …

The majority of Wholesale and retail trade exports go to the rest of the UK.

Image: Figure 15: Wholesale and retail service exports, 2021 …

The vast majority of seafood exports go to the EU.

Image: Figure 17: Scotland's seafood exports …

The majority of beverage exports go to the non-EU destinations.

Image: Figure 18: Scotland's beverage exports …

The majority of Petroleum, petroleum products & related materials export go to the EU. This has become more pronounced since 2020/21 since the large fallen in exports to non-EU destinations.

Image: Figure 20: Exports of Petroleum, petroleum products & related materials, mass and value …

While the mass of gas exports has grown steadily since 2016/17 there was a spike in the value in 2021/22 and 22/23.

Image: Figure 21: Mass and value of gas exports by destination, 2016/17 to 2023/24 …

Gas exports to Ireland have increased by 700% between 2020/21 and 2022/23.

Image: Figure 22: Gas exports to Ireland …

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Last Updated: 18/6 11:21pm