Scotland's exports - policy and statistics

Author: Andrew Aiton, Andrew Feeney-Seale and Iain McIver

PDF Published: Tuesday 10 Sep 2024 (SB 24-44)

Expand
Overview
Report

Hide

Hide

Overview
Report
- Key points
- How this briefing is structured
- Why are we interested in exports?
- Scotland's export performance - main data sources
  - Exports Statistics Scotland
  - Regional Trade Statistics
  - Other data sources
  - Comparability of data sources
- Scotland's international exports - the policy approach
  - Policy before Brexit
    
    Trading Nation Progress Review 2022
  - Since Brexit
  - The UK context
- Scotland's international exports - impact of geopolitical events and COVID 19
  - The UK's departure from the EU
    
    The trade impact of leaving the EU
    
    New bilateral trade agreements
  - The COVID 19 pandemic
  - Russia's illegal invasion of Ukraine
  - Other global supply chain disruption
- Case studies
  - Service exports
    
    Financial services
    
    Wholesale and retail trade
  - Food and drink
    
    Seafood
    
    Non-EU international exports
    
    Beverages
  - Mineral fuels, lubricants & related materials
    
    Petroleum, petroleum products & related materials
    
    Gas, natural & manufactured
- Key points
- How this briefing is structured
- Why are we interested in exports?
- Scotland's export performance - main data sources
- Scotland's international exports - the policy approach
- Scotland's international exports - impact of geopolitical events and COVID 19
- Case studies
Sources

The value of Scottish international exports as a percentage of GDP is below the target of 25%, currently sitting at 19%.

Image: Figure 1: Value of Scottish international exports as a percentage of Scottish on-shore GDP …

In 2021 Scotland exported £80 billion. The rest of the UK accounted for £49 billion of Scottish exports, with £16 billion going to non-EU destinations and £15 billion going to the EU. Services accounted for £39 billion, manufacturing £28 billion and £13 billion in other exports.

Image: Figure 2: Exports from Scotland by sector and destination, 2021 …

The mass of Sottish exports has fallen between 2016/17 and 2023/24, mainly drive by a significant fall in exports to non-EU destinations. Overall, the value of goods exports has increase by in real terms, with export to the EU increasing and exports to non-EU destinations falling.

Image: Figure 3: Indexed total mass and value of Scotland's international goods exports, 2016/17 to 2023/24 …

Scotland's top export good are “Mineral fuel, lubricants and related materials, worth £9.1 billion in 2023.24. “Machinery and transport equipment” at the second most valuable at £8.3 billion, with “beverages and tobacco” worth £5.2 billion.

Image: Figure 4: Sectoral breakdown of Scotland's international goods exports, by destination …

In terms of mass the rest of the UK has seen a larger fall than Scotland. But Scotland has seen a larger fall to non-EU destinations. In terms of real terms value Scotland has seen an increase overall. This is looked at further in the text.

Image: Figure 5: Scotland and rUK exports; change in value and mass between 2016/17 and 2023/24 …

As explored in the text, Scotland and London are the only regions to not have “machinery and transport equipment” as their top export commodities.

Image: Figure 6: Devolved nations and English regions exports, 2023/24 …

Priority 1 markets make up 67% of Scottish exports and 69% of the export value gap.

Image: Figure 7: Priority 1 markets identified in the Scottish Government's export strategy …

Priority 2 markets make up 14% of Scottish exports and 11% of the export value gap.

Image: Figure 8: Priority 2 markets identified in the Scottish Government's export strategy …

As discussed in the text, financial services is the most valuable services export at £11 billion.

Image: Figure 12: Value of individual service sectors exports in 2021 …

As discussed in the text, Professional, scientific and technical activities and education are the only sectors where more is exported to international destinations than to the rest of the UK.

Image: Figure 13: Service exports by destination …

The majority of food and drink exports go to non-EU destinations in terms of both value and mass. However, for mass this has only been the case since 2020/21.

Image: Figure 16: Food and drink exports by destination, mass and value …

The majority of mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials export go to the EU. This has become more pronounced since 2020/21 since the large fallen in exports to non-EU destinations.

Image: Figure 19: exports of mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials, mass and value …

Image: Figure 10: Changes in the mass and value of Scotland's goods exports, 2016/17 to 2023/24 …

If we exclude exports of oil and gas, we can see that export to the EU have remained stable in real terms and fallen slightly in terms of mass.

Image: Figure 11: Scotland's exports to the EU, including and excluding oil and gas …

The majority of financial services exports go to the rest of the UK.

Image: Figure 14: Financial services exports by destination …

The majority of Wholesale and retail trade exports go to the rest of the UK.

Image: Figure 15: Wholesale and retail service exports, 2021 …

The vast majority of seafood exports go to the EU.

Image: Figure 17: Scotland's seafood exports …

The majority of beverage exports go to the non-EU destinations.

Image: Figure 18: Scotland's beverage exports …

The majority of Petroleum, petroleum products & related materials export go to the EU. This has become more pronounced since 2020/21 since the large fallen in exports to non-EU destinations.

Image: Figure 20: Exports of Petroleum, petroleum products & related materials, mass and value …

While the mass of gas exports has grown steadily since 2016/17 there was a spike in the value in 2021/22 and 22/23.

Image: Figure 21: Mass and value of gas exports by destination, 2016/17 to 2023/24 …

Gas exports to Ireland have increased by 700% between 2020/21 and 2022/23.

Image: Figure 22: Gas exports to Ireland …

European Central Bank. (2017). Does trade play a role in helping to explain productivity growth. ECB Economic Bulletin, (7).

Scottish Government. (2022, March 1). Scotland National Strategy for Economic Transformation: evidence paper. Retrieved from https://www.gov.scot/publications/scotland-national-strategy-economic-transformation-evidence-paper/ [accessed 8 April 2024]

Scottish Government. (2019). A Trading Nation. Retrieved from https://tradingnation.mygov.scot/ [accessed 25 January 2024]

Office for National Statistics. (2023, July 3). Globalisation in the context of the UK National Accounts: Blue Book 2023. Retrieved from https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/articles/globalisationinthecontextoftheuknationalaccounts/bluebook2023

Scottish Government. (2023, June 30). Scotland's Vision for Trade: annual report - June 2023. Retrieved from https://www.gov.scot/publications/scotlands-vision-trade-annual-report-june-2023/

Scottish Government. (2018, August 30). Scotland's role in the development of future UK trade arrangements. Retrieved from https://www.gov.scot/publications/scotlands-role-development-future-uk-trade-arrangments/ [accessed 23 July 2024]

UK Government. (2023, July 17). CPTPP: agreement summary. Retrieved from https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/cptpp-agreement-summary#the-agreement [accessed 23 July 2024]

The Labour Party. (2024, June 13). Labour Party Manifesto 2024. Retrieved from https://labour.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Labour-Party-manifesto-2024.pdf [accessed 23 July 2024]

UK in a Changing Europe. (2020). What would ‘trading on WTO terms’ mean?. Retrieved from https://ukandeu.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Revisited-What-would-trading-on-WTO-terms-mean-1.pdf

Independent Commission on UK-EU Relations. (n.d.) Brexit and goods: trade strategy for unlocking UK-EU growth and opportunities. Retrieved from https://static1.squarespace.com/static/6193d9441f87e0447a3f0803/t/652d097a0e91d435123b9816/1697450365790/Brexit+and+Goods+Trade+Strategy+Oct+2023.pdf [accessed 15 May 2024]

Economic and Social Research Institute. (2022, October 19). Brexit reduced overall EU-UK goods trade flows by almost one-fifth. Retrieved from https://www.esri.ie/news/brexit-reduced-overall-eu-uk-goods-trade-flows-by-almost-one-fifth [accessed 19 August 2024]

Federation of Small Businesses. (2024, June 6). Submission to the Constitution, Europe, External Affairs and Culture Committee Inquiry into the Review of the TCA. Retrieved from https://www.parliament.scot/-/media/files/committees/constitution-europe-external-affairs-and-culture-committee/tca-federation-of-small-business.pdf [accessed 26 July 2024]

Scottish Chambers of Commerce. (2024, June 6). Submission to the Constitution, Europe, External Affairs and Culture Committee inquiry into the review of the TCA. Retrieved from https://www.parliament.scot/-/media/files/committees/constitution-europe-external-affairs-and-culture-committee/tca-scottish-chamber-of-commerce.pdf [accessed 26 July 2024]

Scottish Enterprise. (2024, June 6). CEEAC committee inquiry into the E-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreemen. Retrieved from https://www.parliament.scot/-/media/files/committees/constitution-europe-external-affairs-and-culture-committee/tca-scottish-enterprie.pdf [accessed 26 July 2024]

Scottish Parliament. (2024, May 9). Constitution, Europe, External Affairs and Culture Committee Official Report. Retrieved from https://www.parliament.scot/chamber-and-committees/official-report/search-what-was-said-in-parliament/CEEAC-09-05-2024?meeting=15857&iob=135370 [accessed 26 July 2024]

Bank of England. (2021, July 23). How has Covid affected global trade?. Retrieved from https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/bank-overground/2021/how-has-covid-affected-global-trade

Office of National Statistics. (2022, October 20). International trade in UK nations and regions: the impact of coronavirus (COVID-19): 2020. Retrieved from https://www.ons.gov.uk/businessindustryandtrade/internationaltrade/articles/internationaltradeinuknationsandregionstheimpactofcoronaviruscovid19/2020#:~:text=The%20coronavirus%20(COVID%2D19),services%20from%202019%20to%202020. [accessed 15 March 2024]

Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit. (2023, February 20). The Cost of Gas since the Russian Invasion of Ukraine. Retrieved from https://eciu.net/analysis/reports/2023/the-cost-of-gas-since-the-russian-invasion-of-ukraine [accessed 23 July 2024]

Farming Life. (2022, February 24). Why is Ukraine known as the ‘breadbasket of Europe’? Here’s what it produces and exports. Retrieved from https://www.farminglife.com/country-and-farming/why-is-ukraine-known-as-the-breadbasket-of-europe-heres-what-it-produces-and-exports-3584361 [accessed 23 July 2024]

UK Parliament. (2024, July 11). House of Commons Library Briefing: Rising cost of living in the UK. Retrieved from https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-9428/#:~:text=UK%20food%20and%20non%2Dalcoholic,in%20food%20prices%20since%201977. [accessed 23 July 2024]

Sky News. (2023, August 7). Food prices may never fall again following Ukraine invasion, Bank of England chief economist says. Retrieved from https://news.sky.com/story/food-prices-may-never-fall-again-following-ukraine-invasion-bank-of-england-chief-economist-says-12935641 [accessed 23 July 2024]

BBC News. (2021, March 24). Egypt's Suez Canal blocked by huge container ship. Retrieved from https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-56505413 [accessed 19 March 2024]

BBC. (2021, March 29). The cost of the Suez Canal blockage. Retrieved from https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-56559073 [accessed 19 March 2024]

Office of the Chief Economic Advisor, Scottish Government. (2024). Growth Sector Briefing - Financial and Business Services. Retrieved from https://www.gov.scot/binaries/content/documents/govscot/publications/statistics/2019/07/growth-sector-statistics/documents/financial-and-business-services/financial-and-business-services/govscot%3Adocument/Financial%2Band%2BBusiness%2BServices%2B-%2BGrowth%2BSector%2BBriefing.docx [accessed 31 2024]

The City UK. (2023, November 8). Exporting from across Britain: Financial and related professional services 2023. Retrieved from https://www.thecityuk.com/our-work/exporting-from-across-britain-2023/

Scotland Food and Drink. (2024, March 27). Submission to the Constitution, Europe, External Affairs and Culture Committee about the EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA).. Retrieved from https://www.parliament.scot/-/media/files/committees/constitution-europe-external-affairs-and-culture-committee/tca-scotland-food-and-drink.pdf [accessed 26 July 2024]

Quality Meat Scotland . (2024, June 6). Review of EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreemen. Retrieved from https://www.parliament.scot/-/media/files/committees/constitution-europe-external-affairs-and-culture-committee/tca-qms.pdf [accessed 26 July 2024]

Seafood Scotland . (2024, March 27). Briefing Paper: Review of the EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement – March 2024. Retrieved from https://www.parliament.scot/-/media/files/committees/constitution-europe-external-affairs-and-culture-committee/tca-seafood-scotland.pdf [accessed 26 July 2024]

Salmon Scotland . (2024, March 27). Review of the EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement Brief for Constitution, Europe, External Affairs and Culture Committee meeting . Retrieved from https://www.parliament.scot/-/media/files/committees/constitution-europe-external-affairs-and-culture-committee/tca-salmon-scotland.pdf [accessed 26 July 2024]

Scotch Whisky Association . (n.d.) Facts and Figures. Retrieved from https://www.scotch-whisky.org.uk/insights/facts-figures/ [accessed 26 July 2024]

Scotch Whisky Association . (2024, February 15). RESILIENT SCOTCH WHISKY INDUSTRY REACHES £5.6BN GLOBAL EXPORTS DESPITE “CHALLENGING” 2023. Retrieved from https://www.scotch-whisky.org.uk/newsroom/scotch-whisky-exports-2023/ [accessed 26 July 2024]

A.G. Barr. (n.d.) Annual report and accounts 2023. Retrieved from https://www.agbarr.co.uk/media/2jymnnvf/annual-report-and-accounts-2023.pdf [accessed 26 July 2024]

Scottish Parliament Information Centre. (2021). Gas prices and fuel poverty. Retrieved from https://spice-spotlight.scot/2021/10/28/gas-prices-and-fuel-poverty/

Last Updated: 4/4 3:15am