Scotland's exports - policy and statistics

Author: Andrew Aiton, Andrew Feeney-Seale and Iain McIver

PDF Published: Tuesday 10 Sep 2024 (SB 24-44)

Expand
Overview
Report

Hide

Hide

Overview
Report
- Key points
- How this briefing is structured
- Why are we interested in exports?
- Scotland's export performance - main data sources
  - Exports Statistics Scotland
  - Regional Trade Statistics
  - Other data sources
  - Comparability of data sources
- Scotland's international exports - the policy approach
  - Policy before Brexit
    
    Trading Nation Progress Review 2022
  - Since Brexit
  - The UK context
- Scotland's international exports - impact of geopolitical events and COVID 19
  - The UK's departure from the EU
    
    The trade impact of leaving the EU
    
    New bilateral trade agreements
  - The COVID 19 pandemic
  - Russia's illegal invasion of Ukraine
  - Other global supply chain disruption
- Case studies
  - Service exports
    
    Financial services
    
    Wholesale and retail trade
  - Food and drink
    
    Seafood
    
    Non-EU international exports
    
    Beverages
  - Mineral fuels, lubricants & related materials
    
    Petroleum, petroleum products & related materials
    
    Gas, natural & manufactured
Sources

The value of Scottish international exports as a percentage of GDP is below the target of 25%, currently sitting at 19%.

Image: Figure 1: Value of Scottish international exports as a percentage of Scottish on-shore GDP

In 2021 Scotland exported £80 billion. The rest of the UK accounted for £49 billion of Scottish exports, with £16 billion going to non-EU destinations and £15 billion going to the EU. Services accounted for £39 billion, manufacturing £28 billion and £13 billion in other exports.

Image: Figure 2: Exports from Scotland by sector and destination, 2021

The mass of Sottish exports has fallen between 2016/17 and 2023/24, mainly drive by a significant fall in exports to non-EU destinations. Overall, the value of goods exports has increase by in real terms, with export to the EU increasing and exports to non-EU destinations falling.

Image: Figure 3: Indexed total mass and value of Scotland's international goods exports, 2016/17 to 2023/24

Scotland's top export good are “Mineral fuel, lubricants and related materials, worth £9.1 billion in 2023.24. “Machinery and transport equipment” at the second most valuable at £8.3 billion, with “beverages and tobacco” worth £5.2 billion.

Image: Figure 4: Sectoral breakdown of Scotland's international goods exports, by destination

In terms of mass the rest of the UK has seen a larger fall than Scotland. But Scotland has seen a larger fall to non-EU destinations. In terms of real terms value Scotland has seen an increase overall. This is looked at further in the text.

Image: Figure 5: Scotland and rUK exports; change in value and mass between 2016/17 and 2023/24

As explored in the text, Scotland and London are the only regions to not have “machinery and transport equipment” as their top export commodities.

Image: Figure 6: Devolved nations and English regions exports, 2023/24

Priority 1 markets make up 67% of Scottish exports and 69% of the export value gap.

Image: Figure 7: Priority 1 markets identified in the Scottish Government's export strategy

Priority 2 markets make up 14% of Scottish exports and 11% of the export value gap.

Image: Figure 8: Priority 2 markets identified in the Scottish Government's export strategy

As discussed in the text, financial services is the most valuable services export at £11 billion.

Image: Figure 12: Value of individual service sectors exports in 2021

As discussed in the text, Professional, scientific and technical activities and education are the only sectors where more is exported to international destinations than to the rest of the UK.

Image: Figure 13: Service exports by destination

The majority of food and drink exports go to non-EU destinations in terms of both value and mass. However, for mass this has only been the case since 2020/21.

Image: Figure 16: Food and drink exports by destination, mass and value

The majority of mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials export go to the EU. This has become more pronounced since 2020/21 since the large fallen in exports to non-EU destinations.

Image: Figure 19: exports of mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials, mass and value

Image: Figure 10: Changes in the mass and value of Scotland's goods exports, 2016/17 to 2023/24

If we exclude exports of oil and gas, we can see that export to the EU have remained stable in real terms and fallen slightly in terms of mass.

Image: Figure 11: Scotland's exports to the EU, including and excluding oil and gas

The majority of financial services exports go to the rest of the UK.

Image: Figure 14: Financial services exports by destination

The majority of Wholesale and retail trade exports go to the rest of the UK.

Image: Figure 15: Wholesale and retail service exports, 2021

The vast majority of seafood exports go to the EU.

Image: Figure 17: Scotland's seafood exports

The majority of beverage exports go to the non-EU destinations.

Image: Figure 18: Scotland's beverage exports

The majority of Petroleum, petroleum products & related materials export go to the EU. This has become more pronounced since 2020/21 since the large fallen in exports to non-EU destinations.

Image: Figure 20: Exports of Petroleum, petroleum products & related materials, mass and value

While the mass of gas exports has grown steadily since 2016/17 there was a spike in the value in 2021/22 and 22/23.

Image: Figure 21: Mass and value of gas exports by destination, 2016/17 to 2023/24

Gas exports to Ireland have increased by 700% between 2020/21 and 2022/23.

Image: Figure 22: Gas exports to Ireland

European Central Bank. (2017). Does trade play a role in helping to explain productivity growth. ECB Economic Bulletin, (7).

Scottish Government. (2022, March 1). Scotland National Strategy for Economic Transformation: evidence paper. Retrieved from https://www.gov.scot/publications/scotland-national-strategy-economic-transformation-evidence-paper/ [accessed 8 April 2024]

Scottish Government. (2019). A Trading Nation. Retrieved from https://tradingnation.mygov.scot/ [accessed 25 January 2024]

Office for National Statistics. (2023, July 3). Globalisation in the context of the UK National Accounts: Blue Book 2023. Retrieved from https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/articles/globalisationinthecontextoftheuknationalaccounts/bluebook2023

Scottish Government. (2023, June 30). Scotland's Vision for Trade: annual report - June 2023. Retrieved from https://www.gov.scot/publications/scotlands-vision-trade-annual-report-june-2023/

Scottish Government. (2018, August 30). Scotland's role in the development of future UK trade arrangements. Retrieved from https://www.gov.scot/publications/scotlands-role-development-future-uk-trade-arrangments/ [accessed 23 July 2024]

UK Government. (2023, July 17). CPTPP: agreement summary. Retrieved from https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/cptpp-agreement-summary#the-agreement [accessed 23 July 2024]

The Labour Party. (2024, June 13). Labour Party Manifesto 2024. Retrieved from https://labour.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Labour-Party-manifesto-2024.pdf [accessed 23 July 2024]

UK in a Changing Europe. (2020). What would ‘trading on WTO terms’ mean?. Retrieved from https://ukandeu.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Revisited-What-would-trading-on-WTO-terms-mean-1.pdf

Independent Commission on UK-EU Relations. (n.d.) Brexit and goods: trade strategy for unlocking UK-EU growth and opportunities. Retrieved from https://static1.squarespace.com/static/6193d9441f87e0447a3f0803/t/652d097a0e91d435123b9816/1697450365790/Brexit+and+Goods+Trade+Strategy+Oct+2023.pdf [accessed 15 May 2024]

Economic and Social Research Institute. (2022, October 19). Brexit reduced overall EU-UK goods trade flows by almost one-fifth. Retrieved from https://www.esri.ie/news/brexit-reduced-overall-eu-uk-goods-trade-flows-by-almost-one-fifth [accessed 19 August 2024]

Federation of Small Businesses. (2024, June 6). Submission to the Constitution, Europe, External Affairs and Culture Committee Inquiry into the Review of the TCA. Retrieved from https://www.parliament.scot/-/media/files/committees/constitution-europe-external-affairs-and-culture-committee/tca-federation-of-small-business.pdf [accessed 26 July 2024]

Scottish Chambers of Commerce. (2024, June 6). Submission to the Constitution, Europe, External Affairs and Culture Committee inquiry into the review of the TCA. Retrieved from https://www.parliament.scot/-/media/files/committees/constitution-europe-external-affairs-and-culture-committee/tca-scottish-chamber-of-commerce.pdf [accessed 26 July 2024]

Scottish Enterprise. (2024, June 6). CEEAC committee inquiry into the E-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreemen. Retrieved from https://www.parliament.scot/-/media/files/committees/constitution-europe-external-affairs-and-culture-committee/tca-scottish-enterprie.pdf [accessed 26 July 2024]

Scottish Parliament. (2024, May 9). Constitution, Europe, External Affairs and Culture Committee Official Report. Retrieved from https://www.parliament.scot/chamber-and-committees/official-report/search-what-was-said-in-parliament/CEEAC-09-05-2024?meeting=15857&iob=135370 [accessed 26 July 2024]

Bank of England. (2021, July 23). How has Covid affected global trade?. Retrieved from https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/bank-overground/2021/how-has-covid-affected-global-trade

Office of National Statistics. (2022, October 20). International trade in UK nations and regions: the impact of coronavirus (COVID-19): 2020. Retrieved from https://www.ons.gov.uk/businessindustryandtrade/internationaltrade/articles/internationaltradeinuknationsandregionstheimpactofcoronaviruscovid19/2020#:~:text=The%20coronavirus%20(COVID%2D19),services%20from%202019%20to%202020. [accessed 15 March 2024]

Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit. (2023, February 20). The Cost of Gas since the Russian Invasion of Ukraine. Retrieved from https://eciu.net/analysis/reports/2023/the-cost-of-gas-since-the-russian-invasion-of-ukraine [accessed 23 July 2024]

Farming Life. (2022, February 24). Why is Ukraine known as the ‘breadbasket of Europe’? Here’s what it produces and exports. Retrieved from https://www.farminglife.com/country-and-farming/why-is-ukraine-known-as-the-breadbasket-of-europe-heres-what-it-produces-and-exports-3584361 [accessed 23 July 2024]

UK Parliament. (2024, July 11). House of Commons Library Briefing: Rising cost of living in the UK. Retrieved from https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-9428/#:~:text=UK%20food%20and%20non%2Dalcoholic,in%20food%20prices%20since%201977. [accessed 23 July 2024]

Sky News. (2023, August 7). Food prices may never fall again following Ukraine invasion, Bank of England chief economist says. Retrieved from https://news.sky.com/story/food-prices-may-never-fall-again-following-ukraine-invasion-bank-of-england-chief-economist-says-12935641 [accessed 23 July 2024]

BBC News. (2021, March 24). Egypt's Suez Canal blocked by huge container ship. Retrieved from https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-56505413 [accessed 19 March 2024]

BBC. (2021, March 29). The cost of the Suez Canal blockage. Retrieved from https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-56559073 [accessed 19 March 2024]

Office of the Chief Economic Advisor, Scottish Government. (2024). Growth Sector Briefing - Financial and Business Services. Retrieved from https://www.gov.scot/binaries/content/documents/govscot/publications/statistics/2019/07/growth-sector-statistics/documents/financial-and-business-services/financial-and-business-services/govscot%3Adocument/Financial%2Band%2BBusiness%2BServices%2B-%2BGrowth%2BSector%2BBriefing.docx [accessed 31 2024]

The City UK. (2023, November 8). Exporting from across Britain: Financial and related professional services 2023. Retrieved from https://www.thecityuk.com/our-work/exporting-from-across-britain-2023/

Scotland Food and Drink. (2024, March 27). Submission to the Constitution, Europe, External Affairs and Culture Committee about the EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA).. Retrieved from https://www.parliament.scot/-/media/files/committees/constitution-europe-external-affairs-and-culture-committee/tca-scotland-food-and-drink.pdf [accessed 26 July 2024]

Quality Meat Scotland . (2024, June 6). Review of EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreemen. Retrieved from https://www.parliament.scot/-/media/files/committees/constitution-europe-external-affairs-and-culture-committee/tca-qms.pdf [accessed 26 July 2024]

Seafood Scotland . (2024, March 27). Briefing Paper: Review of the EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement – March 2024. Retrieved from https://www.parliament.scot/-/media/files/committees/constitution-europe-external-affairs-and-culture-committee/tca-seafood-scotland.pdf [accessed 26 July 2024]

Salmon Scotland . (2024, March 27). Review of the EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement Brief for Constitution, Europe, External Affairs and Culture Committee meeting . Retrieved from https://www.parliament.scot/-/media/files/committees/constitution-europe-external-affairs-and-culture-committee/tca-salmon-scotland.pdf [accessed 26 July 2024]

Scotch Whisky Association . (n.d.) Facts and Figures. Retrieved from https://www.scotch-whisky.org.uk/insights/facts-figures/ [accessed 26 July 2024]

Scotch Whisky Association . (2024, February 15). RESILIENT SCOTCH WHISKY INDUSTRY REACHES £5.6BN GLOBAL EXPORTS DESPITE “CHALLENGING” 2023. Retrieved from https://www.scotch-whisky.org.uk/newsroom/scotch-whisky-exports-2023/ [accessed 26 July 2024]

A.G. Barr. (n.d.) Annual report and accounts 2023. Retrieved from https://www.agbarr.co.uk/media/2jymnnvf/annual-report-and-accounts-2023.pdf [accessed 26 July 2024]

Scottish Parliament Information Centre. (2021). Gas prices and fuel poverty. Retrieved from https://spice-spotlight.scot/2021/10/28/gas-prices-and-fuel-poverty/

Last Updated: 14/7 2:35am

An error occured while loading, please try again in a few minutes.