Child poverty in Scotland: forecasting the impact of policy options

Author: Paola De Agostini and Nicola Hudson

PDF Published: Tuesday 09 Apr 2019 (SB 19-18)

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Overview
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Overview
Report
- Executive Summary
- Context: child poverty in Scotland
- Scottish Government child poverty strategy
- Comparing alternative policy scenarios
- The baseline position: no action
- Selected "what if" scenarios
  - Scenario A: Reducing income tax in Scotland
  - Scenario B: Increasing child benefit
  - Scenario C: Changing child-related elements of Universal Credit
- Comparing policy interventions
  - Overall impact on child poverty
  - Which types of families benefit from the policy options?
- Other analysis
- Annex A: EUROMOD and project technical details
- Annex B: Modelling assumptions
  - Updating to 2018/19 and 2023/24
  - Policy changes
  - Universal credit roll out
  - Equivalisation methodology
  - Non take-up of means-tested payments
  - Default indexation assumptions
Sources

Image: Figure 1: Child poverty targets

Image: Figure 2: Baseline scenario - no change to current plans

Image: Figure 3: Scenario A - reducing the starter rate of income tax

Image: Figure 4: Scenario B - increasing child benefit

Image: Figure 5: Scenario C - changing the child-related elements of Universal Credit

Image: Figure 6: Comparing alternative scenarios

Note: family types are not mutually exclusive

Image: Figure 7: Impact of policy options by family type

Scottish Government. (2018, March 22). Poverty & Income Inequality in Scotland: 2014-17. Retrieved from https://www.gov.scot/Publications/2018/03/3017/downloads [accessed 28 August 2018]

Scottish Government. (2018). Every Child, Every Chance: The Tackling Child Poverty Delivery Plan 2018-22. Retrieved from https://beta.gov.scot/binaries/content/documents/govscot/publications/publication/2018/03/child-chance-tackling-child-poverty-delivery-plan-2018-22/documents/00533606-pdf/00533606-pdf/govscot:document/ [accessed 29 August 2018]

Scottish Parliament. (2017, December 18). Child Poverty (Scotland) Act 2017. Retrieved from http://www.legislation.gov.uk/asp/2017/6/pdfs/asp_20170006_en.pdf [accessed 25 March 2019]

Scottish Government. (2019, March 28). Poverty and income inequality in Scotland: 2015-2018. Retrieved from https://www.gov.scot/publications/poverty-income-inequality-scotland-2015-18/ [accessed 09 April 2019]

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de Agostini, P. (2018, December). EUROMOD Country Report: United Kingdom 2015-2018. Retrieved from https://www.euromod.ac.uk/sites/default/files/country-reports/year9/Y9_CR_UK_Final.pdf [accessed 28 March 2019]

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Office for Budget Responsibility. (2018, October 29). Economic and fiscal outlook – October 2018. Retrieved from https://obr.uk/efo/economic-fiscal-outlook-october-2018/ [accessed 25 March 2019]

IPPR Scotland. (2018, March 5). How much would it cost to reduce child poverty in Scotland? The financial scale of child poverty in Scotland. Retrieved from https://www.ippr.org/research/publications/child-poverty-in-scotland [accessed 25 March 2019]

Reed, H., & Stark, G. (2018, April). Forecasting Child Poverty in Scotland. Retrieved from https://dera.ioe.ac.uk/31454/1/00533637.pdf [accessed 25 March 2019]

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Resolution Foundation. (2019, March 22). Wrong direction: can Scotland hit its child poverty targets?. Retrieved from https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications/wrong-direction-can-scotland-hit-its-child-poverty-targets/ [accessed 25 March 2019]

Last Updated: 29/3 4:00am