Scottish Budget 2019-20

Author: Ross Burnside, Ailsa Burn-Murdoch, Allan Campbell, Nicola Hudson, Greig Liddell, Alison O'Connor

PDF Published: Friday 14 Dec 2018 (SB 18-84)

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Overview
Report

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Overview
Report
- Executive Summary
- Context for Budget 2019-20
- The overall spending envelope
- Budget allocations
  - Total allocations
  - Portfolio allocations
  - Resource and Capital expenditure
- Taxation policies and revenues
  - Income tax
    
    Income tax proposals
    
    Income tax revenues
    
    Impact on individuals
    
    National insurance contributions
    
    Behavioural impacts
  - Devolved taxes
  - Block grant adjustment
    
    Reconciliation of forecasts to actual data
    
    Alternative indexation methodologies
- The Scottish Fiscal Commission forecasts
  - Economic outlook
    
    GDP forecasts
    
    Wider economic factors
    
    UK comparison
  - Policy impacts
    
    Income tax
    
    Non-Domestic Rates (NDR)
    
    Land & Buildings Transaction Tax (LBTT)
    
    Scottish Landfill Tax (SLfT)
    
    Social security
  - Impact of SFC forecasts
- Capital and infrastructure
  - Carry forward of 2018-19 consequentials
  - Borrowing powers
  - Financial transactions
  - Revenue financed investment
  - Innovative financing
  - Revenue financing and the 5% cap
  - National Infrastructure Mission
- The largest real terms increases and decreases
- Local Government
  - Historical context
  - 2019-20 local government funding
  - The story behind the figures
    
    Revenue funding
    
    Capital funding
  - COSLA's position
- How might the Budget change?
- Other issues
  - Public sector pay
  - Equality and Fairer Scotland Budget Statement
  - Carbon Assessment
- Annex - Local Government funding
Sources

Image: Figure 1: How is the Scottish Budget determined?

Image: Figure 2: Allocation of TME, 2019-20

Image: Figure 3: Absolute Change in Resource and Capital, 2018-19 to 2019-20 (real terms, 2018-19 prices)

Image: Figure 4: Fiscal Resource and Capital combined by portfolio, 2019-20

Image: Figure 5: Resource and Capital split by portfolio, 2019-20

Image: Figure 6: How is the Scottish budget adjusted for taxation?

Image: Figure 10: Largest real terms changes 2018-19 to 2019-20, £m

Image: Figure 7: Scottish GDP growth forecast, calendar year basis

Image: Figure 8: Scottish average nominal earnings growth forecast, calendar year basis

Image: Figure 9: Scottish and UK GDP growth forecast, calendar year basis

Scottish Government. (2018). Scottish Budget 2019-20. Retrieved from https://www2.gov.scot/Resource/0054/00543975.pdf

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Campbell, A. (2016, January 21). SB 16-07 Local Government Funding: Draft Budget 2016-17 and provisional allocations to local authorities. Retrieved from http://www.parliament.scot/ResearchBriefingsAndFactsheets/S4/SB_16-07_Local_Government_Funding-_Draft_Budget_2016-17_and_provisional_allocations_to_local_authorities.pdf [accessed 15 December 2017]

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Burn-Murdoch, A. (2017, December 18). Local Government Finance: Draft Budget 2018-19 and provisional allocations to local authorities. Retrieved from https://digitalpublications.parliament.scot/ResearchBriefings/Report/2017/12/18/Local-Government-Finance--Draft-Budget-2018-19-and-provisional-allocations-to-local-authorities [accessed 22 December 2017]

Berthier, A., Burn-Murdoch, A., Aiton, A., & Finnigan, K. (2018, November 9). Local Government Finance: The funding formula and local taxation income. Retrieved from https://digitalpublications.parliament.scot/ResearchBriefings/Report/2018/11/9/Local-Government-finance--the-Funding-Formula-and-local-taxation-income# [accessed 28 November 2018]

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Scottish Government. (2018, December 12). Public sector pay policy 2019-2020. Retrieved from https://www.gov.scot/publications/public-sector-pay-policy-2019-20/ [accessed 14 December 2018]

Scottish Government. (2018). Equality and Fairer Scotland Budget Statement of the Scottish Budget 2019-20. Retrieved from https://www2.gov.scot/Publications/2018/12/4383

Scottish Government. (2018). Carbon Assessment of the 2019-20 Budget. Retrieved from https://www2.gov.scot/Publications/2018/12/3029

Last Updated: 28/6 1:45am

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