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Published by The Scottish Parliamentary Corporate Body
Pre-Budget scrutiny 2026-27: future social security spending in Scotland
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Published: Tuesday 18 Nov 2025 (SJSSS062025R10)
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Introduction
Evidence gathering
Background
Scottish Government position on social security spend
Part 1: Scottish Government's resource budget, Medium Term Financial Strategy and Fiscal Sustainability Delivery Plan
Resource budget and Medium Term Financial Strategy
Fiscal Sustainability Delivery Plan
Effectiveness of FSDP
Trends in devolved social security spend
New social security spend in 2025-26 and 2026-27
Spend on devolved social security in 2026-27
Scottish Government's resource budget, Medium Term Financial Strategy and Fiscal Sustainability Delivery Plan: conclusions and recommendations
Part 2: Forecast growth in devolved social security spend
Support for current and increased levels of devolved social security
Cash payments versus public service provision
Sustainability of social security spend
Analysis of administrative spending
Forecast growth in devolved social security spend: conclusions and recommendations
Part 3: Taxation
Progressive taxation
Different types of taxation
Fiscal flexibility
Scottish Government position
Taxation: conclusions and recommendations
Part 4: Effectiveness of devolved social security spend: reducing child poverty
Child poverty targets and the Scottish Child Payment
Cost effectiveness of the Scottish Child Payment
Recipients above the poverty line
'Cliff edge' for those in receipt of the Scottish Child Payment
Scottish Government evaluation of the ‘five family payments’
Suggested measures to tackle child poverty
JRF's Meeting the Moment report
Data gaps
Evaluating the impact of interventions
Better availability and linkage of data
Committee inquiry into the effectiveness of the Scottish Child Payment
Effectiveness of devolved social security spend: reducing child poverty: conclusions and recommendations
Part 5: Effectiveness of devolved social security spend: disability benefits
Value of payments to recipients
Growth in disability benefit caseload and spending
Independent Review of ADP
Recommendations
Review periods
Improving policy making
Support for specific groups
Effectiveness of devolved social security spend: disability benefits: conclusions and recommendations
Part 6: Support for Carers
Increase in eligibility
Unpaid care work
Adequacy
Support for carers: conclusions and recommendations
Part 7: Take-up rates and Minimum Income Guarantee
Social security take-up rates
Pension Credit
Scottish Government comment
Minimum Income Guarantee
Take-up rates and Minimum Income Guarantee: conclusions and recommendations
Part 8: Prevention
Scotland's Population Health Framework
Beyond social security
Employability
Scottish Government's Tackling Child Poverty Delivery Plan
Prevention: conclusions and recommendations
Part 9: Universal versus targeted benefits
Universality
Targeting
Proportionate universalism
Scottish Government position
Universal versus targeted benefits: conclusions and recommendations
Part 10: UK Government policy choices
Personal Independence Payment (PIP) and Winter Fuel Payment
UNCRC (Incorporation) (Scotland) Act 2024
Suggested improvement
Scottish Government view
UK Government policy choices: conclusions and recommendations
Annexe A: Social Security Scotland benefits and forecast spend in 2026-27
Annexe B: written and oral evidence
Annexe C: Extracts from the minutes
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