Report on Scottish Government Budget 2021-22 | Scottish Parliament

Report on Scottish Government Budget 2021-22

PDF Published: Tuesday 23 Feb 2021 (FCC052021R2)

Figure one shows that Scottish GDP fell by almost a quarter during the lockdown in early 202 when compared with the GDP trends in February 2020.

Image: Figure 1: Trend and actual Scottish GDP, February 2020 and January 2021

Figure two shows that in November 2020 the OBR predicted a much greater increase in UK GDP rowth rates compared with the January 2021 forecasts by the SFC. The SFC however forecast, in January 2021, greater GDP growth rates for 2021 than the OBR forecast in November 2020.

Image: Figure 2: Comparison between SFC January 2021 Scotland and OBR November 2020 UK GDP % growth rates

Figure 3 shows that income tax was forecast at Budget 2020-21 to rise from just over £10 million in 2020-21 to just under £15 million in 2025-26. It then shows at Budget 2021-22 the forecast is just over £500 million less in 2020-21 to just over £600 million less in 2024-25.

Image: Figure 3: Non Savings Non Dividend (NSND) Income Tax forecast and change from previous budget's forecast

Diagram showing that net tax position is calculated by taking the block grant adjustment away from tax revenues.

Image: Net Tax Position

Figure 4 shows that the mining, energy and water supply sector contributes the most to Scotland's tax take relative to the rest of the UK but has also been had high exposure to COVID-19 restrictions. The Agriculture sector has has high exposure to Brexit impacts, whilst manufacturing has been exposed to both COVID-19 and Brexit impacts.

Image: Figure 4: Estimated Share (%) of Total Income Tax Receipts generated by Sector

Figure 5 shows that Scotland has a higher percentage of income tax payers in the tax brackets up to £100,000 compared with the rest of the UK, whilst the rest of the UK has a higher percentage of income tax payers in the over £100,000 income tax bracket.

Image: Figure 5: Differences In The Income Distribution, 2018-19

Last Updated: 15/1 6:27pm

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